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全球经济复苏乏力,多数国际航运需求不振。

  • BY: 小蓝海
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当前世界经济发展环境下,发生了巨大的变化在世界经济中心已经开始转向亚太地区,世界经济的发展将带来一个新高潮在西太平洋海岸,并进一步加强区域经济的发展,跨国集团在中国港口建设和海洋产业的发展提供了有利条件。面对巨大机遇,我国港口航运业产能不足问题十分突出。由于缺乏大型油船和大型油船泊位,中国的石油进口运输只占中国船舶运输的10%,因此不得不租用大量的外国船舶进行运输。它不仅需要支付大量的外汇,而且失去了发展我国航运业和增加就业的良好机会。

 

航运业是一个资本密集型产业,发展中国家缺乏足够的资金将大部分进出口业务控制在发达国家的船队控制之下,中国也不能幸免。随着我国工业化进程的发展和加快,这一问题将越来越突出。如果不妥善解决,就会形成恶性循环。

 

随着国民经济和对外贸易的快速增长,我国的海运行业实现了持续快速的发展。随着海运量的不断增长和我国航运业在世界上的影响力不断增强,它已成为全球航运业繁荣的重要因素。随着我国航运业的快速发展,其市场环境也在发生深刻的变化。特别是中国政府积极采取对外开放措施,根据国际海事惯例,制定了符合本国国情的海事政策法规,为海运业提供了“竞争、开放、透明”的市场环境。包括在华投资经营的外商在内的中国航运从业者,必须始终了解和研究所处的市场环境,才能在不断遇到新情况、不断解决新问题的过程中审时度势、掌握过程、发展壮大。

 

2012年,全球经济复苏乏力,多数国际航运需求不振。2012年10月,中国出口集装箱综合运价指数为1187.72,同比下降2.2%。上海出口集装箱运价指数(export container freight index)为1202.96点,同比下跌3.6%。2012年,欧洲航线传统旺季运输需求一直低迷,欧洲航线货运量增长乏力。此外,航运公司并没有通过航班停飞、运力下降等措施扭转货运量持续下降的趋势。目前,货运在三个月内下降了约600美元标准箱,接近盈亏平衡点。航运公司正在发动一场货运价格战,运价普遍在每FEU下降100至200美元左右。

 

2012年,中国航运业进入深度低迷期。第三季度,中国航运景气指数为78.17点,环比下降16.37点,处于相对低迷的区间。航运企业信心指数为70.16点,环比下降17.47点,处于相对低迷的区间。其中,干散货运输企业景气指数为58.54点,环比下降15.68点,处于相对低迷的区间。集装箱企业经营环境指数为87.32点,处于相对低迷的区间,环比下降32.08点。第三季港口企业信心指数为97.42点,为疲弱的衰退区域,环比下降20.72点。自金融危机以来,港口企业首次陷入衰退。2012年航运业的低迷已成定局,2013年很可能是更加艰难的一年,对航运公司来说,这是黎明前最黑暗的一年。The current world economic development environment, great changes have taken place in the center of the world economy has begun to turn to the asia-pacific region, the development of world economy will bring a new upsurge in the western Pacific coast, and to further strengthen the development of regional economy, multinational group in China's port construction and the development of Marine industry provides favorable conditions. In the face of great opportunities, the lack of capacity in China's port and shipping industry is very prominent. China's oil imports account for only 10 per cent of its ship traffic because of a lack of large tankers and berths, so it has to charter a large number of foreign vessels. It not only needs to pay a lot of foreign exchange, but also loses the good opportunity to develop our shipping industry and increase employment.

 

 

 

Shipping is a capital-intensive industry, and developing countries lack the funds to keep most of their imports and exports under the control of the rich world's fleets. China is not immune. With the development and acceleration of China's industrialization process, this problem will be more and more prominent. If not properly addressed, a vicious cycle can develop.

 

 

 

With the rapid growth of national economy and foreign trade, China's Marine industry has achieved sustained and rapid development. With the continuous growth of sea traffic and the increasing influence of China's shipping industry in the world, it has become an important factor for the prosperity of the global shipping industry. With the rapid development of China's shipping industry, its market environment is also undergoing profound changes. In particular, the Chinese government has taken active measures to open up to the outside world. In accordance with international maritime practices, China has formulated maritime policies and regulations in line with its national conditions, thus providing a "competitive, open and transparent" market environment for the maritime industry. Chinese shipping practitioners, including foreign investors operating in China, must always understand and research the market environment, in order to constantly encounter new situations, constantly solve new problems in the process of sizing up the situation, master the process, development and growth.

 

 

 

In 2012, the global economic recovery was weak and the demand for most international shipping was sluggish. In October 2012, China's composite export container freight index was 1187.72, down 2.2% year-on-year. The Shanghai export container freight index stood at 1202.96 points, down 3.6 per cent year-on-year. In 2012, the demand for transport in the traditional peak season on European routes has been sluggish, and the growth of freight volume on European routes has been sluggish. In addition, the shipping companies did not through flight grounding, capacity decline and other measures to reverse the trend of continuous decline in freight volume. Freight is now down about $600 teu in three months, close to break-even. Shipping companies are waging a freight price war, with rates generally falling around $100 to $200 per FEU.

 

 

 

In 2012, China's shipping industry entered a deep downturn. In the third quarter, China's shipping sentiment index was 78.17 points, down 16.37 points from the previous quarter and in a relatively low range. The confidence index of shipping companies was 70.16 points, down 17.47 points from the previous month and in a relatively low range. Among them, the dry bulk transport business sentiment index was 58.54 points, down 15.68 points month-on-month, in a relatively depressed range. The operating environment index of container enterprises was 87.32 points, which was in a relatively low range, with a month-on-month drop of 32.08 points. The port business sentiment index was 97.42 in the third quarter, a weak recession zone, down 20.72 points from the previous quarter. Port companies are in recession for the first time since the financial crisis. The 2012 shipping downturn is a forgone conclusion, and 2013 is likely to be an even tougher year, the darkest before dawn for shipping companies.

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